Bubble stocks' P/E vs the S&P 500: dot-com (1995-2002) and AI era (2015-now)

Price / diluted earnings per share. Top: the last 12 months' earnings (as filed). Bottom: the earnings actually made over the NEXT 12 months (hindsight, not analyst forecasts). Log scale, capped 5x-300x. Forward P/E now (Nov 5 close / analysts' next-fiscal-year EPS, Yahoo): NVDA 11.4x, AVGO 15.0x, META 17.0x, GOOGL 18.2x, MSFT 22.2x, AMZN 23.8x, AMD 24.8x. S&P 500 forward 18.7x (FactSet, Oct 30).

source: Prices: Yahoo Finance month-end close, split-adjusted (no dividend adjustment); last point Nov 5 2026; EPS: diluted EPS reported to the SEC - XBRL company facts (2009 on) and EX-27 financial data schedules (1995-2000), FY2001 from the 2001-02 10-Ks; adjusted for splits; trailing P/E uses only earnings already filed (or past the filing deadline); Gaps: negative earnings = no line; lines leaving the top are above 300x (e.g. QCOM 568x Dec 1999, CSCO ~1,660x hindsight Apr 2000). Dot-com lines stop in 2001-02 (EX-27 schedules ended in 2001; later 10-Ks not parsed). Sun and Lucent left out (no price history on Yahoo); TSMC left out (annual SEC reports only). AVGO starts 2016-18 (Broadcom Inc's own filings only); Hindsight forward = price / the next 12 months' actual EPS (interpolated between quarters); ends a year before the latest reported quarter. Historical analyst forecasts (I/B/E/S, FactSet) are not freely available; S&P 500: multpl.com monthly P/E (trailing reported earnings); its hindsight line = that P/E x E(now)/E(12 months later), multpl earnings • drawn 2026-11-06 01:29 UTC